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Today’s Menu

• OpenAI prepares to launch revolutionary models capable of generating original ideas

• Bitcoin shows surprising stability amid conflicting White House signals on technology tariffs

Markets

TODAY IN AI

OpenAI prepares to launch revolutionary models capable of generating original ideas

OpenAI is reportedly on the verge of releasing groundbreaking AI models that could fundamentally change how innovation happens by generating original ideas rather than simply processing existing information. According to The Information, these new models—reportedly called o3 and o4-mini—represent a significant leap beyond current AI capabilities, with enterprise subscriptions potentially costing as much as $20,000 per month.

What makes these models particularly significant is their reported ability to cross-pollinate ideas across different scientific domains including physics, biology, chemistry, and engineering—something that even experienced human researchers often struggle to accomplish. Early testers have allegedly used these models to develop new methods for detecting pathogens in wastewater and designing precision-controlled plastic recycling experiments.

This development aligns with Oxford physicist David Deutsch's theory that human progress fundamentally depends on our ability to create new explanatory knowledge. An AI system capable of generating novel scientific ideas would represent an extension of what Deutsch calls "universal explainers"—entities that can create knowledge capable of explaining anything explainable, potentially accelerating human progress across multiple fields simultaneously.

Strategic takeaway: If these reports prove accurate, we may be witnessing the beginning of a new era in AI capabilities—one where systems move beyond processing existing knowledge to actively participating in knowledge creation. The extreme pricing structure suggests OpenAI sees this capability as transformative enough to command premium rates from enterprises, potentially creating a significant divide between organizations that can afford access to these idea-generating systems and those that cannot. This raises important questions about how equitably distributed the benefits of AI-driven innovation will be across society.

^{Today In Crypto}

Bitcoin approaches record highs while traditional markets show warning signs

Bitcoin is demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of global economic uncertainty, edging toward the $86,000 mark and now less than 3% away from its all-time "Liberation Day" high. This impressive performance has pushed Bitcoin dominance—its share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization—to nearly 64%, a level not seen since January 2021.

This strength stands in stark contrast to traditional equity markets, where the Nasdaq 100 remains 5% below its own Liberation Day high. More concerning for conventional investors, the S&P 500 has reportedly formed a "death cross"—a traditionally bearish technical signal occurring when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. The last time this happened in March 2022, markets experienced an initial 11% rise followed by a 20% decline. Current options market activity, including heavy volumes of NVIDIA put purchases, suggests institutional investors may be preparing for further equity market weakness.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used a Bloomberg interview to reassure markets about U.S. bond stability, dismissing concerns about foreign nations dumping Treasuries despite the Dollar Index having fallen below 100 after dropping more than 10% in recent weeks. Bessent also confirmed the Trump administration is actively seeking a new Federal Reserve Chair to replace Jerome Powell, with formal interviews scheduled to begin later this year.

Strategic takeaway: Bitcoin's resilience during this period of equity market uncertainty and dollar weakness suggests a potential evolution in its market positioning—from speculative digital asset to a possible hedge against traditional market turbulence. The divergence between Bitcoin's approach toward all-time highs and the formation of bearish technical patterns in major equity indices points to a decoupling that could attract investors seeking alternative stores of value. As the search for a new Federal Reserve Chair introduces additional policy uncertainty, Bitcoin's predetermined monetary policy and limited supply may continue to appeal to investors concerned about traditional market stability.

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Thanks for reading!

Until next time,

Damon James