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Today’s Menu

• OpenAI Just Put a Timeline on Superintelligence

• Trump's $440B Stimulus Reignites Crypto Markets

Markets

TODAY IN AI

OpenAI Just Put a Timeline on Superintelligence

OpenAI shared its view on AI progress, predicting systems will soon become smart enough to make discoveries and calling for global coordination on safety, oversight, and resilience as the technology nears superintelligent territory.

OpenAI said current AI systems already outperform top humans in complex intellectual tasks and are "80% of the way to an AI researcher." The company expects AI will make small scientific discoveries by 2026 and more significant breakthroughs by 2028, as intelligence costs fall 40x per year.

For superintelligent AI, OpenAI said work with governments and safety agencies will be essential to mitigate risks like bioterrorism or runaway self-improvement. It also called for safety standards among top labs, a resilience ecosystem like cybersecurity, and ongoing tracking of AI's real impact to inform public policy.

While the timeline remains unclear, OpenAI's message shows that the world should start bracing for superintelligent AI with coordinated safety. The company is betting that collective safeguards will be the only way to manage risk from the next era of intelligence, which may diffuse in ways humanity has never seen before.

When OpenAI says we're 80% to AI researcher status with discoveries by 2026, that's not speculation - that's a roadmap to superintelligence.

TODAY IN CRYPTO

Trump's $440B Stimulus Reignites Crypto Markets

President Trump just reignited the stimulus era, announcing a "tariff dividend" of at least $2,000 per American excluding high-income earners - and markets instantly reacted.

Bitcoin jumped 2.6% to $105K. Ethereum surged 5.2% to $3,600. Liquidity is officially back on the menu.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, over 220 million Americans could qualify under 2021 income limits - that's roughly $440 billion in payouts, making it the largest stimulus in history as U.S. debt nears $40 trillion.

Analyst Anthony Pompliano summed it up: "Stocks and Bitcoin only know to go higher in response to stimulus."

But The Kobeissi Letter noted the unprecedented timing: "Never in history has the US paid out stimulus this large with stocks near record highs. The S&P 500 is ~3% away from all time high territory."

August brought record $30 billion in tariff revenue. But against a $345 billion monthly deficit, tariffs plug barely 10% of shortfalls. The Supreme Court is reviewing Trump's tariff authority, with prediction markets giving just ~22% chance of approval.

Even if checks never arrive, the expectation of liquidity alone lifts risk assets. In crypto, price reacts long before policy does.

As Lyn Alden always says - nothing stops this train.

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Thanks for reading!

Until next time,

Damon James