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Today’s Menu

• Six-Person Startup Just Embarrassed Google

• Bitcoin's Three Big Fear Stories Don't Hold Up

Markets

TODAY IN AI

Six-Person Startup Just Embarrassed Google

Poetiq, a six-person AI startup, just claimed the top spot on the ARC-AGI-2 reasoning benchmark by beating Google's Gemini 3 Deep Think at half the cost. They didn't build their own model. They orchestrated existing ones better than anyone else.

The meta-system adapts to new models within hours, achieving top results shortly after Gemini 3 launched without any retraining. Using Gemini 3 Pro as a base, Poetiq's refinement system scored 54% at $30 per task while Google's best variant hit 45% at $77.

This marks the first system to crack the 50% barrier on ARC-AGI-2. Leading models struggled to hit 5% just six months ago. The startup open-sourced their approach, which uses LLMs to continuously refine their own outputs with built-in self-auditing for quality control.

The jump from sub-5% to over 50% in months shows how quickly AI is advancing. Poetiq proves gains can come from two directions simultaneously: frontier model development from the giants and clever orchestration from small teams without massive compute budgets.

When six engineers beat Google's best model at half the cost, compute isn't the only path to breakthrough performance.

TODAY IN CRYPTO

Bitcoin's Three Big Fear Stories Don't Hold Up

Fear still controls this market after the sharpest pullback since the 2022-23 bear. Three narratives dominate: quantum computers killing Bitcoin, Strategy being forced to dump coins, and Tether about to blow up.

K33 Research says all three are long-term risks, not reasons to panic at $90K. Quantum risk is real but years away and fixable with coordination. Strategy just raised $1.44 billion, giving breathing room on dividends instead of forcing near-term sales. Tether earns roughly $500 million monthly on Treasuries with billions in excess equity and most reserves in low-risk assets.

None of that looks like an immediate trigger. Under the surface, structure looks healthier than headlines suggest. Bitcoin sits back above major support at $80K. Leverage is low by recent standards. CME futures activity remains muted.

The policy backdrop is quietly shifting in Bitcoin's favor. New 401(k) rules could open a $9 trillion retirement market to crypto. The Clarity Act is moving forward. A more dovish, pro-crypto Fed setup is on the table.

K33's conclusion is straightforward: the odds of another 80% collapse look lower than the odds of a medium-term rebound. December looks less like the start of a new bear market and more like an entry window for investors who can handle the volatility.

The three biggest fear narratives driving Bitcoin lower are either years away, already managed, or completely false. The reality is far less scary than the headlines suggest.

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Thanks for reading!

Until next time,

Damon James